NFL Betting Archives: Expert Systems and Market Data

Open paper bet-tracking journal on a desk with handwritten columns for date, fixture, market, stake and result partly filled in pen, with a black pen across the corner

NFL Bankroll Management and Unit Sizing for UK Punters

The Sunday I bet 18% of my bankroll on one play Eight years ago I had a £400 bankroll at the start of my second NFL season. The first Sunday of the season I saw what I thought was an obvious mispriced spread and bet £75 on it. It lost. That was 18.75% of my […]
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Two smartphones side by side on a wooden desk each showing a generic UK sportsbook NFL fixture page with slightly different fractional odds

NFL Line Shopping: Three Worked Examples Across UK Sportsbooks

The Tuesday I learnt what 9% commission really costs The first NFL Sunday of the 2018 season I bet a Sunday-night moneyline at 10/11. I had two accounts open. I checked the first, saw 10/11, and put the bet on. After the bet had settled — winning, as it happened — I noticed that the […]
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American football wide receiver in a light-coloured jersey, helmet and shoulder pads leaping to catch the ball with arms outstretched on a sunlit pitch

NFL Receiving Yards Props: Target Share, Routes and Bookmaker Lines

The 62.5-yard line a 23-yard catch defeated One Sunday afternoon last November I had a wide receiver pegged at over 62.5 yards. It was the kind of line I bet maybe once a season — clear matchup edge, target share trending up, a quarterback who had thrown for over 300 yards the previous week. The […]
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American football quarterback in a white jersey, helmet and shoulder pads in mid drop-back gripping the ball with both hands on an outdoor pitch

NFL Quarterback Passing Props: Reading Yardage, TD and INT Markets

The 247-yard line that became 198 One Thursday morning in October last year I looked at a quarterback passing yards line set at 247.5. The Friday injury report came out and the QB’s two starting receivers were listed as questionable with hamstring strains. By Saturday morning both had been downgraded to doubtful. By Sunday kickoff […]
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Packed London stadium during an American football match on an autumn afternoon with a grass pitch in NFL markings under an overcast sky

NFL London Games Betting: Neutral Venue Stats and Edges

Evaluating Neutral Venue Impact on Team Performance and Spreads The first NFL game I ever watched in person was a London fixture in 2014. Twickenham, eight degrees, sideways drizzle. The home team — designated home, anyway — had flown in 36 hours earlier and looked it. The visiting team had arrived a day later but […]
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Laptop screen showing a generic NFL betting exchange interface with back and lay price columns on a dark wooden desk

NFL Betting Exchanges UK: Back and Lay Commission Models

Peer-to-Peer Wagering: Eliminating the Sportsbook House Edge The first time I placed a lay bet on Matchbook — laying the Chiefs at evens on a Thursday night — I had been betting NFL for four years and exclusively through traditional sportsbooks. Within a week the difference was obvious. The price I had taken was tighter […]
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